The Horizon Story with Norma Wong
Will we choose humanity? Interdependent, thriving, emergent? The Horizon Story with Norma Wong explores, questions, and shares insights, skills, strategies, and practices to navigate today’s challenges while keeping our eyes on the horizon.
The Horizon Story with Norma Wong
S2E1: How Do We Know If We Are Living Through Collapse — and What Happens Next?
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What do we do about this state of collapse? The more we accept and understand the state we're in, the more agency we have. The signs are everywhere and the evidence keeps mounting, but naming collapse is only the first move. The harder question is what we do once we've said it out loud. And what becomes possible when we stop bracing against the breakdown and start trying to make sense of it?
In this first episode of the second season, Norma Wong speaks with Executive Producer Nā'ālehu Anthony to explore the question.
In this episode:
- How do we know we're in collapse, and what are the indicators?
- The importance of observation
- Climate change and how it relates to this moment
- Implementation failure as a sign of collapse
- Why the typical assumptions in systems advocacy no longer hold
- Why we should focus on leaping instead of rebuilding
- How the ingenuity of communities is an essential part of this moment
REFERENCED
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Are we in a state of collapse? You know, more and more there's evidence that that's the case. As it turns out, we in this country are kind of late to the game. We'd say that almost the entire world has been in some state of a collapse for some time to come. But here we are. And the question is: what are we hearing? What are we seeing? What are we thinking about what's going on? The more that we know, and we know it not only as just a rush to our senses, then the better off that we're going to be. But that does not take away our possibility and our agency to have some responsibility for this particular moment. And we're going to think about all of that. So here in the Horizon Story Podcast, we're embracing and trying to understand all of that that is occurring, and in many ways, to normalize it, not to take it just as an assault or pieces of information that depress us on a day in and day out basis, but to be able to normalize what is going on and then therefore have more agency. So there is the what, there is the so what, and then there is the then what, right? What's going on and so what if that is going on? And if you agree that there is a so what, in other words, there's a point to things, then what are we called to do? What are we called to do? You know, I inconveniently think about those things almost every day. And I'm pretty sure that most people are not. But lately, more people that I have never ever met before will start up a conversation because they know that, oh, you know, Norma Wong, she uh she wrote that book. You know, that book that had that title, the title that kind of describes the situation that we're in. When no thing works. When I first came out with that book, it was November of an election. And the November of that election, Election Day 2024, had a particular result that was startling to people. And there were the people who were startled that it happened, who wanted it to happen, and then there were people who were startled who did not want it to happen, but it happened anyway. And so, all along the spectrum, so this is irrespective of ideology, you know, what party you are, or any of those kinds of things. They all had this sense of surprise, I mean, really flat-out surprise about what was going on. And it raised the question to them about how could things be working if we thought that this would not be the outcome. And the surprising part was that didn't matter whether you voted for the person who got in in 2024, or whether you didn't vote for that person, whether you voted for the other people. You thought that everything was rigged in a particular way, that it would turn out in a particular way, and that didn't happen. And that actually gave way to the truth of perhaps we're coming into a moment when no thing works, when no thing works. Collapse, no matter what the outcome of that particular election, you'd say that that election did not precipitate collapse. Collapse occurred. It was occurring for a long time. And perhaps that is why that would be almost the inevitable outcome of things. We'll talk more about this as we go along. But you know, this is a moment in which these inconvenient kinds of questions come to our mind, and our ability to keep up with everything falls farther and farther behind, farther and farther behind. In some ways, we can't stop to make sense of any individual thing. It's like you have to allow things to just happen, take a step back, take a step back, just like come out of the stream and stand on the side of the stream and then watch the stream. Watch the stream. And if you watch the stream, you begin to see these trends that are occurring. And in that trend, we can begin to understand what's happening. Anyway, that's how I happen to think about these things. It helps me to not only understand things, but to allow my nervous system to not take everything like a personal assault. So what's happening is not personal to you, even though you're being personally inundated. So there's this part about how you might say, well, how can the world do this to me? Or how can that particular elected official do that to me? How can that system do that to me? We are in many ways collateral damage to things that are happening all over the place. Just as if we are benefiting, it's not actually specifically benefiting us. We're just collaterally benefiting along with everybody who happens to be benefited at this particular moment. So we're getting the benefit and the assault, not as individuals personally benefiting or personally getting assaulted. We're just getting caught up in everything. And I find that even if I am personally harmed by something, it is useful for me to understand that it is not specifically about me. It is about my being a human being right now. And as a human being, I'm gonna get caught. I'm gonna get caught. Can I step away from the immediate wave of assault and watch it? And as it comes closer, can I step aside? Or can I be like the buffalo and just run through the storm? Both, by the way, are possible for us. If we begin to understand, collapse is a falling apartness that is occurring all over, and the more information that we have, the better off we will to be able to see things for what they are and then therefore have agency. Clearly, a makaala moment. Friends, let's let's take a break and we'll be right back. Hi, aloha. You know, we're talking about collapse here on the Horizon Story podcast, and there are different kinds of collapse. So there's what it is after everything has collapsed, but we're actually not in that stage right now. The stage that we're in is we're in the stage where things are falling apart. We can tell that that's the case, but it hasn't fallen apart completely yet. So, what stage are we at? I want to use like a real life example. And um, if you happen to live in an environment in which you have termites like we have in Hawaii, you know what I'm talking about. So if you live in a place like Hawaii, or maybe uh Guam, or my guess would be any place in the global south, that you would understand that if you live in a wooden house, a structure of any kind that is edible by a termite, that termites will find it. And then the question is how long will you be able to stay in that structure and still have it be a structure and not have it give itself way to the termites? Okay, so you have to pay attention, you have to try to get rid of the termites as you can, but at some point you'll be in a structure where the joke goes that if the termites stop holding hands, then what will happen is that the house will fall apart. Okay, so it's literally all the things that you have done in order to hold it up will be insufficient and it'll begin to fall apart around you, it'll crumble around you. But as it crumbles, it doesn't crumble overnight, it takes time. And we are in various stages of falling apartness, and that is part of our dilemma, because if you haven't completely collapsed, you're gonna think that maybe, maybe this is a temporary thing. We're just in a troublesome spot here right now. It's not really collapse. But let me actually let me actually discuss with you some of the ways in which we have evidence of collapse. Certainly, Mother Nature is telling us it's having a moment, right? The entirety of the world is caught up in a climate change that whether you believe that humans had anything to do with or not, you cannot escape the fact that nature is in a state of imbalance right now. It's trying to find its center, and as it's doing so, these great changes are moving out. So you're either in an El Nino year, which we are in right now, or in a La Niña year, which we just came out of. And these huge currents are moving across the bodies of the ocean. And they're literally doing things that uh at scale, right? So thousands of miles of currents begin to warm up or cool down, they begin to move a few degrees north or south or east or west. And when they do that, they create entire weather systems in all of the countries that are on the perimeter of these of these ocean bodies. And the climate is having a moment in of itself of whether it is going to be able to be stable anywhere, anytime. You know, so we're in May right now. Oh, sorry, no, we're actually in June. And in June, when we first recorded this podcast, whenever it is you're hearing it or seeing it, in June, in the place that I live in Kalihi Valley, we should not be raining every night. But we are. Every night we're getting some rain. This should not be a pattern that is occurring in June. And yet, it is occurring. Like, you know, the people who have delivered the newspaper every day to me, because I'm still one of those people that read a paper newspaper. Okay, okay, okay, I know there are other forms of newspaper, and you can do it online, but I'm still somebody who gets a paper every day. So the person who delivers the paper every day, I have a complaint to range, and that is this person is not taking into consideration that even though normally it shouldn't be raining every night, it is, and therefore, chances are when this person throws that paper and misses going directly into my garage, and instead gets right in that space in between my car and my sister's car, the likelihood is, first of all, it'll hit the pavement where it is wet. And more rain will fall before dawn, and therefore my paper will be wet. It's like we have an expectation of the weather occurring a particular way, and nowhere in the world is the weather occurring in the way that people believe is normal. Okay, it's not. So the climate alone is in a falling apartness. But if you look at uh what else might be in the headlines besides abnormally cold, abnormally hot, abnormally wet, abnormally dry, there would be these terrific political scrums that are occurring. Ways in which you have record turnouts of people where people don't normally vote in such high numbers, and where you have people basically who are getting elected or not getting elected, that we didn't expect either way. We didn't expect that person to get elected, we didn't expect that person to not get elected, and that it's usually about a scrum. A scrum is when parties come and they put their heads down and they put their arms out and they head towards each other and they get in a bundle in which they're not looking up and they're just pushing back and forth against each other. And the thing about a scrum is unless there is outside intervention, it stays in that way. So we are in a scrum now around many things, not only politically, of course, but it is most obvious there. And it's most obvious there because we have a thing called political seasons. And now every political season is getting overheated, just like the climate. It is reaching a point where it is having implementation failure, literally implementation failure. And that in itself is another sign of you know the termites like holding hands, trying to hold it on together. Like everything trying to get implemented, but not quite being able to do so. When I get on a plane these days, chances are, and actually, you know, I get on a plane very frequently. So I am traveling almost half of my time. I'm in a lot of planes. I get on a plane, and now more than 50% of the time, there will be some kind of mechanical issue that needs to be resolved. Now I am happy that they find it before we get in the air. I'm very happy that that's the case. But it will be a sign that after all of the checks have been made, that more and more frequently they're still finding problems and issues that need to be taken care of. More than 50% of the time. Now, I've spoken to some people who are like in the industry, and they say that that would be a sign to them that the whole system that they have that's set up to make sure that you're safe in the air, is at a risk point. In other words, it's like outside of the margin in which it is plain, and it's the margin is now in a gray area of challenges and difficulty, and that is part of the reason why more and more it'll be the case. Okay, it's like the norm now is that I have to leave more time between flights because I can have an expectation that there will be a delay, right? That's the expectation now. So when the margin, which used to be, oh, okay, there is a chance of something happening, when that margin is no longer there, and now it will be only luck that you won't have a problem, then you know that implementation systems, whatever they might be, are in a they're in a period of danger. Is it still safe to fly? Yes, it's still one of the safest ways in which you can be transported. But the safest way you can be transported is having more difficulty. And the systems that are not as safe are therefore more at risk. If you are in a car, in a bus, if you're on a train, if you're walking down the street. You are more at risk because all of the many things that you count on are strained. It's just strained. It's not that somebody was planning for this failure. It's that everything is being strained. Our very immune systems are being strained. More on people coming down with things that are minor, but nevertheless irritating, you know, like rashes, you know, like uh things like uh eczema. And here I'm going to like try not to scratch. Like if you hear rash and eczema, you want to scratch. And it's like this, our immune systems are having a difficulty. Why wouldn't it? It's going to have a difficulty because the world is much more stressful right now, and because the climate is having a moment. Because the climate's having a moment, then as humans, as we're living beings, we're subjected to more heat or more cold or more wind or more drought, and therefore we are being stretched, and therefore our immune systems are on hyperdrive. I think we'll talk about more of that later. But you know, it's not only these things that are depressing news about collapse that are occurring. There are other kinds of things that are happening too. It's like people are actually rising to the challenge. They are. An interesting way in which a whole industry has risen to the challenge is the fashion industry. Now, we don't think about the fashion industry as being, you know, the people who like understand that there are going to be problems in the world and they step up, they step up their game. But as it turns out, a few years ago, I began to notice that whether or not you are in a budget fashion situation, or if you are in a couture fashion situation, that more clothes were being offered made of linen. How about that? Made of linen. Because linen is what it is that you would wear that would be the most breathable, and that it wouldn't like wick to your body, and then therefore there would be a way in which you would be cooler if you wore linen. And the industry, the clothing industry, the textile industry, the people that made fabric, the entire system began to notice and respond. Notice and respond. So now if you're on a budget, or if you are someone who is like a high-end fashion horse, you can find clothing that would be appropriate to this particular moment. They rose to the challenge. They are like an entire community that have stepped up their game. I think people are stepping up their game. Their spirits, you know, we're we're taking it, we're taking it on the chin, but that determination is beginning to show up. And I'm gonna have some stories a little bit later about how all of that is beginning to arise. It's like I'm not sure whether we are the termites or we are the people who eradicate them. But what we're certainly determined not to be is we're not we're determined not to be the rotting wood. Why would we want to be that? Why would we want to be that? So understanding the confluence of all of this, what collapse means, what it is that we may garner from watching it and stepping more ahead of the curve. So just as we would if you were a homeowner and you lived in Kalihi Valley and it's gonna rain more, and that means that the woods are gonna be more susceptible. And you know those termites, they can only hold on for so long. So just like that person, what can we do? Hey folks, we're gonna be back in a bit, and when we do, uh we will have Na'alehu Anthony with us again, the executive producer of the podcasts. Thank you. See you in a bit of a hello friends. Uh thank you for coming back, and we have here uh Notle Who Anthony. Thanks for being here.
SPEAKER_01Well, thanks for having me. You know, I was listening offset over there uh to what you had to say in the first 20 or so minutes of the show, and you were talking about um this idea of collapse, and uh I think you specifically said like we're mid-collapse. Right. And so my question, the first question is is how do we know that we're not just in some blip in history and that we are actually systems are actually collapsing?
SPEAKER_00Well, uh, I think both can be true at the same time, right? So it's like that we are in a blip. The question is, is it a blip that uh in which uh uh not enough will collapse so that therefore if we if just with the passage of time everything will normalize again? That's that's actually the question. Right. Okay. I would say that um uh that the evidence of what is collapsing has reached a point where it's very difficult to be able to see what would bring us back without uh like Herculean efforts across many fronts, across many systems. So, you know, so I would say uh that we would hesitate to our detriment if we just think that things are gonna come back to normal.
SPEAKER_01So there was uh this conversation that we had before the show about this idea of systems change, right? And that there have been folks who have been in industry of system change for decades, right? For generations. Yes. And um I I guess my question is, is that is is it are we at a place where that's no longer enough and we need new tools? And if that is the case, then what are the tools that we need if it's not system change in this diamond space?
SPEAKER_00It's not likely that we could uh do things just through systems change. Right. Which I which is like the um I I you know that's a case that I think that we need to like make on this podcast, right? That that is not going to be enough. And part of the reason is, I mean, if if you just if you just think about it in this way, yeah. If um part of um a system means that uh there is like some complex thing that is happening, and that there are many people who are involved in managing that complex thing. And um and they are they've been doing it for a long time, and they're used to to it doing it a particular way, and that if anything is going to change, that what they have to do is they have to uh they have to like have a process by which it changes. That's why systems change take so long.
SPEAKER_02Right. Right? Okay.
SPEAKER_00Okay, so now we got two problems. One is that the problems that the system is having are happening so rapidly that if a system wanted to and could change, it literally is not built to change as quickly as it needs to to face whatever the problem happens to be.
SPEAKER_01The challenge is outstripping the bureaucracies. That's right, that's right. That's the system.
SPEAKER_00The system, right. The second is um that uh uh we are dealing with phenomena. Not it's not only about oh, they don't work anymore. It's like not only do they not work, but there are all kinds of problems we we didn't see before. We didn't anticipate. Okay. There are things that are happening at the same time, and we were only dealing with one and not with the other. Okay. And um and literally, if you are like in a system change advocacy mode, here's how it worked for you. What it worked for you is you would build enough uh power and critical mass of people to demand that a system perform in a particular way. Okay? Now that assumes that the system uh knows how to do it and that all they need to do is like put more resources in and do it better, okay? Or if if there's a change that's needed, that those are the people who would be able to do it. Okay, and I don't think we can make any of those assumptions anymore. So if you are in part of the system that is advocating for change, right? By the way, it I don't think that uh most people actually think of that as, oh no, I'm not part of the system. I am outside of the system. But you are part of the system. You're part of the system that everybody counts on to try to move the system in a particular direction. That's how it's worked forever and ever and ever. Okay?
SPEAKER_02Okay.
SPEAKER_00All right, okay. Now, but you cannot make any assumption now, and I would argue you could only have made it in a limited basis, that your advocacy would mean that the people who are engaged in it, number one, would know what to do, right? Even if they wanted to. And right now, you have a 50-50 chance, whether they want to or not, for various reasons.
SPEAKER_01Sure.
SPEAKER_00One is self-preservation, and the other is when things are beginning to fall apart, people begin to have radically different notions about what to do and about what to do.
SPEAKER_01Right. Right, right. Right. And so we're in a place of radically different notions about what to do and where to go next.
SPEAKER_00Radically different, right? Yeah.
SPEAKER_01Right. And and so um, if this is the mid-collapse, what are the indicators that um we are at like full bore, like bottomed-out collapse? Like what how much how much further can this go before we can rebuild?
SPEAKER_00Oh, let's see. Well, I would argue that rather than rebuilding, we can leap and start actually providing for the things that we need in ways that are both inside and outside. Okay, in other words, we're in a moment where MacGyvering and hacking would be useful. Okay, and in some ways, we could find ways that would be entirely outside and ingeniously engaged in a different way. Okay, like this is not the best example that I, you know, that uh we should have, but right now, um, in the Ukraine and Russian war, there is a lot of ingenuity being uh tested out, okay.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, right?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, in that particular war, because the usual means of carrying out warfare literally are unable to do it, right? Yep. Okay, and so therefore, right, it's like um and I I and and it's useful to be thinking that about this, okay, is that um the side that is not the aggressor is being more ingenious, not only in the um Ukraine and Russian war, but also in the war that's currently being done in Iran, okay, right? So, and I'm not saying whether the aggressor is good or bad, or the uh entity, the country that is being um uh uh being assaulted is good or bad. Okay, so just it's like what side of it, what side of it are are you like in the receiving side of the warfare, or are you on the side that is trying to actually um commit the warfare? Okay, um, and so uh that's something that I just um observed recently, but I would say like like it's always been the case that in warfare that you have the most um technological advances across different things, not only in warfare, but also like for example in um medical care, for example, right? You have the most significant advances occur in wartime.
SPEAKER_02Right.
SPEAKER_00Right now, that's happening in spades, and usefully, the way it's happening is not through the industrial complex. Okay, right? So it's not the industrial complex, which is a system that is in this um uh creation phase. Okay, it's the people who want to actually um survive in uh in spite of the fact that they're under assault. And they're the ones that are uh coming up with these innovations.
SPEAKER_01Right. So you know when if we're if we're talking about innovations, we don't just have to look at what's going on in in wartime situations in Ukraine or Iran. There's also like a number of innovations that are taking place uh in community. Right. Yes. And as you um start up this podcast, and as as you launch into these books that are talking about some of the tools that we need of um both what kind of behavior um that that we should be looking out for, but also like how do we um how do we think about ourselves and our communities? What are some of the stories that are useful to you in understanding then not only what to do during collapse, but also um how we model what that leap looks like into the future? What you travel a lot. What what do you see? What's important to you as indicators that people are doing that?
SPEAKER_00An indicator to me is that is when people are doing more than just getting by.
SPEAKER_01Right.
SPEAKER_00Okay. I mean that that that's always an indicator to me. It's like uh, so it's like uh, so you know, in in Hawaii, we have major parts of the economy, right? So uh, and for us, you know, it's essentially uh tourism, the military, and we have government, basically, and then everything else is much smaller.
SPEAKER_02Okay.
SPEAKER_00Um so one of the things that happens in a place like Hawaii is when uh places that are uh not part of Hawaii have an economic downturn, okay? Uh it greatly impacts us because then people can't travel here. Okay. Or when policies change with respect to the military, uh, then we're impacted too. Okay?
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_00Right. And they could be impacted uh in the case of military, it could be act in ways in which, no, we would really prefer not for more land to be used. But the military is interested in uh because of um international policy and what's happening in the world, right? That uh they're looking for more land, right? So we have this tug and pull across that. So then the question actually is what do we do in Hawaii that would have some agency when these things are working or not working? Okay, okay. So let's take the economic side of things. Uh one of the things that I've I noticed, uh, and this is like uh going back a ways now, like in the last couple of decades, every time there is an uh economic downturn and we have um problems uh economically in Hawaii. And you know, everybody in Hawaii, like most households have not only multiple uh wage earners, but we also like many people have more than one job, right?
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_00You have you have your regular gig and then you have your part-time gig or like or or things like that. Or like or a way that you make up uh because of the high cost of living is uh you uh when they ask you if you want overtime, yes, you want overtime, right? And it's a thing, right? It's a thing.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, that's right.
SPEAKER_00Okay, so we do that on a regular basis. But when the hot economy that we are counting on, like that's a system called a hot economy, begins to drag, then what do we do? And what you'll notice is there'll be this huge spurt of small businesses that arise. Huge spurt, okay? And the first spurt will be people saying, Oh, you know what? Uh every holiday, uh, people always ask me about you know the shortbread, you know, from Auntie's recipe. Like everybody asks, I always make like lots of shortbread now. I wonder if I can like make shortbread and some shortbread, right? And so like it starts with foods, we we immediately go there, but then there'd be all of these like different kinds, which is where the ingenuity comes in. Okay, right, you know, like, oh yeah, you know, lily coy shortbread with guava glaze, okay, okay, and a little bit like sea salt on top, you know, right? Okay, which would distinguish me, you know, from the other kind shortbread, right? Right. Okay. And like the ingenuity comes, right, in terms of that, and that specialness that we may be able to provide uh that comes from both our experience, but also the ways in which we would want to be on the receiving side of that ingenuity.
SPEAKER_02Right.
SPEAKER_00Right? Right. Okay. Okay. Happens every single time we're in an economic downturn. Okay. The the ingenuity arises, the entrepreneurial activity arises.
SPEAKER_01So I'm curious. Like I I've seen that as well, and there's certainly um you know different ways that you can point to the ingenuity of these communities, you know, especially when there's the glue that holds community together. That we're not talking about these individuals that that do well. We're talking about these communities that that have to hold each other up. We saw that during COVID. You know, we we see some of that now when the price of fuel is what it is, and and uh and that affects everything across spectrum in Hawaii, right?
SPEAKER_02Right.
SPEAKER_01Cost of fuel affects at the gas pump, uh, at your electric bill, the food cost, everything goes up. And I'm wondering, is that enough? Is the ingenuity of communities enough to start whatever is next?
SPEAKER_00I would say that that is the building block. Okay, it's definitely the building block. And ironically, it's a faster building block than systems change. But we're gonna make that case.
SPEAKER_01So I want to repeat that back. So so from your experience, the ingenuity of communities, the entrepreneurial spirit of these communities is an important piece of the puzzle as we cast whatever is next, and it might be able to move quicker, just given the simple guidelines that businesses follow, to be able to get into um whatever is next before the bureaucracies catch up to us.
SPEAKER_00Yes. Yeah. And because small groups of people can literally get things done faster than systems.
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_00Shall we take a break?
SPEAKER_01We can take a break.
SPEAKER_00Okay. Okay. Thank you. Hello friends. You know, Natlehu and I were talking about this how do we know whether we are in collapse or not, whether it's a blip. And uh like what makes up this part that we are in that's like an almost like an awkward part, which is to say that if everything had already fallen apart, we would know that to be so and we would just move on. But we're we're not yet there. And so we're reading the signs and we're trying to get a little bit ahead of the curve. Collapse is a falling apartness, especially when you're in the middle of it, which is where we are. And facing that, preparing, doing things uh in small groups, as it turns out, in communities and in teams, uh, allows us to have more agency over this particular moment. Now, we ignore all of these signs at our own peril. And obviously, you know, it's like obviously we're not the people who will ignore it. Why else would we go through all this trouble and you know sit here and be in this conversation? So if you're curious about that, then I would invite you to stay tuned because as we move into the subject more, we're gonna talk about the various paradoxes that are occurring because of the collapse, the opportunity that it makes possible because it is in collapse, and the fertile ground that is available to us if we choose to take it. So uh that's where we are. Hope you'll come back. Thank you for listening. The Horizon Story Podcast is produced by Bryson Ho and Sarah Demares de Rivera, hosted and written by me, Norma Wong, Executive Producer Na'alehu Anthony, featuring Ariel Jacobson, for Collective Caceleration, Kelly Miller, for OEV TV, Ken Sato, Wesley Kealohan, Courtney Leong, Jeff Lee, and Ivy Lagavagd. For Paakai Communications, Jamila Silver, Diana Hahn, Pearl Thule, Christine Matsuda, Hair and Makeup by Melody Levy, Mahallo to Kalihi, the land of my birth, ancestors, teachers, collaborators, and friends, Rosie Abrium for the support, and Scott Nine and Todge James for the encouragement. The Horizon Story is brought to you by OEV TV, copyright by collective acceleration. Follow us on social at the Horizon Story. Questions to hello at thehorizonstory.com. Visit us where you find your favorite podcast or at thehorizonstory.com.